2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
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All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats will be up for election in Wales as the general election will occur after the recently completed boundary review took effect.
Election[edit]
Date of the election[edit]
On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]
Number of Welsh MPs[edit]
As required by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, the number of seats in Wales must be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coinciding with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales is responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it must abide by this total.
The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.[2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.[4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November[5] and came into force on 29 November.[6]
Constituencies[edit]
- Aberafan Maesteg
- Alyn and Deeside
- Bangor Aberconwy
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
- Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
- Bridgend
- Caerfyrddin
- Caerphilly
- Cardiff East
- Cardiff North
- Cardiff South and Penarth
- Cardiff West
- Ceredigion Preseli
- Clwyd East
- Clwyd North
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd
- Gower
- Llanelli
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
- Mid and South Pembrokeshire
- Monmouthshire
- Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr
- Neath and Swansea East
- Newport East
- Newport West and Islwyn
- Pontypridd
- Rhondda and Ogmore
- Swansea West
- Torfaen
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Wrexham
- Ynys Môn
Welsh MPs not seeking re-election[edit]
MP | Seat | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wayne David | Caerphilly | 2001 | Labour | 11 February 2022[7] | |
Hywel Williams | Arfon | 2001 | Plaid Cymru | 11 November 2022[8] | |
David Jones | Clwyd West | 2005 | Conservative | 20 September 2023[9] | |
Christina Rees | Neath | 2015 | Labour | 1 February 2024[10] | |
Kevin Brennan | Cardiff West | 2001 | Labour | 27 May 2024[11] | |
Jonathan Edwards | Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | 2010 | Plaid Cymru1 | 28 May 2024[12] |
1Sat as an independent from July 2020.
Candidates[edit]
Candidates in bold were MPs at dissolution and represented a constituency in that parliamentary term which is succeeded at least partially by the constituency they're standing for election in at this election, in some cases not for the party they were aligned with when they were originally elected, and also includes those elected at by-elections in the preceding parliament. Italics denotes incumbent MPs not contesting the election.
Opinion polling[edit]
The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
Poll results[edit]
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Reform | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 43% | 19% | 14% | 3% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 24 |
22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 40% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 22 |
23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 49% | 16% | 10% | 5% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 33 |
20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[92] | ||||||||||
18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 45% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 23 |
24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 48% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 28 |
10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 47% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 25 |
4–7 Dec 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,004 | 42% | 20% | 15% | 7% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 22 |
12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 44% | 24% | 13% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 20 |
14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 46% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 20 |
16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 44% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 22 |
1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 50% | 19% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 31 |
13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 17 |
14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 46% | 24% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 22 |
17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 43% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 21 |
16 Jun 2023 | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[93] | ||||||||||
12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 49% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 30 |
14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 43% | 23% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 20 |
15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 20 |
17–23 Feb 2023 | YouGov | WalesOnline | 1,083 | 53% | 19% | 12% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 34 |
3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 49% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 29 |
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 51% | 18% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 33 |
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | Survation | 38 Degrees | 6,012 | 51% | 24% | 13% | 6% | – | – | 6% | 27 |
20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 46% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 23 |
12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 15 |
5 May 2022 | Local elections held in Wales[94] | ||||||||||
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 15 |
13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,009 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 15 |
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 | YouGov | ? | ? | 39% | 29% | 17% | 3% | 5% | – | 7% | 10 |
13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,071 | 37% | 31% | 15% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 6 |
6 May 2021 | Election to the Senedd[95] | ||||||||||
2–4 May 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,071 | 37% | 36% | 14% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1 |
18–21 Apr 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,142 | 37% | 33% | 18% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4 |
9–19 Apr 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 2,005 | 42% | 33% | 14% | 3% | – | 3% | 5%
UKIP on 3% Other on 2% |
9 |
16–19 Mar 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,174 | 35% | 35% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | Tie |
24 Jan 2021 | Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[96] | ||||||||||
11–14 Jan 2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,018 | 36% | 33% | 17% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3 |
26–30 Oct 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,013 | 43% | 32% | 13% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 11 |
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,110 | 41% | 33% | 15% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 8 |
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,021 | 39% | 35% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4 |
3–7 Apr 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,008 | 34% | 46% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 12 |
20–26 Jan 2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,037 | 36% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5 |
12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 40.9% | 36.1% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.8 |
Seat projections[edit]
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 Oct 2022 | People Polling | 1,237 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 1 | Assumes 40 Welsh seats. Seats will be reduced to 32. |
12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0 |
See also[edit]
- Next Senedd election
- 2024 United Kingdom general election in England
- 2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
- 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland
Notes[edit]
- ^ Incumbent MP for Islwyn
- ^ Was member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
- ^ an MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
- ^ Was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
- ^ Was not reselected as a candidate
- ^ Baynes is the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and is standing in North Shropshire in England.
- ^ Incumbent MP for Swansea East
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